VALUE ANALYSIS
Find the mispricing. Record the decision.
Pre-match models, live decisions, and post-match validation built from model probability, fair odds, and market prices.
Official English article
Waiting for price, switching markets and managing risk
The live execution record for Celtic vs Dundee: the 28-minute entry, half-time switch, 65-minute hedge and final ROI.
Official English article
Why expected dominance did not mean betting the score handicap
Why Celtic vs Dundee was priced through the corner markets rather than the score handicap, including structure, price, expected value and live-entry conditions.
Official English article
World Cup Final review: Argentina had zero shots in 90 minutes.
Spain won after extra time, but regulation ended 0-0. The review tests the pre-match value thesis against a 15–0 advantage in shots and a 9–1 advantage in corners.
Official English article
World Cup Final: Spain vs Argentina — Spain’s defensive record or Messi’s final chapter?
Model diagnostics, probability adjustment and the case for Total Under 2.25 at +12.92% EV before kickoff.
Official English article
The main bet lost. The pre-match analysis still worked live.
France vs Spain: the complete record of ten bets and the live adjustments made after the primary pre-match bet failed.
Official English article
Written before the result: where the value was in France vs Spain.
The complete pre-match model, market-price comparison, entry conditions, and no-bet decisions published before kickoff.
EV Bet Engine is the source of record. Other platforms are used only for distribution and discovery.